Several developments in 2010 will linger well into 2011. Oil and Gas team see industry majors continuing their push into deepwater drilling and unconventional hydrocarbons, while cash-rich national oil companies keep looking for upstream opportunities. Depressed US gas prices are unlikely to move significantly in 2011, while Asia-Pacific remains the LNG (liquefied natural gas) market of choice.
1. The Americas: Higher drilling costs and more onerous regulations will likely push smaller independents out of deepwater Gulf of Mexico acreage. US will continue to favour Colombia and Brazil, while recognising significant political risk in Venezuela.
2. Europe: An interesting year ahead for European energy security. The inability of Nabucco’s backers to locate sufficient quantities of gas presents export opportunities for Qatar and will further encourage shale drilling in central Europe – with Poland the current favourite.
3. BRICs: All four BRIC economies will be friendlier to upstream investment in 2011. India and China need foreign expertise and capital to tap their unconventional gas resources, and will see opportunities for majors in larger Russian projects and Brazil’s subsalt licensing round.
4. Middle East: Iraq’s potential will likely be weighed down by fractious politics, while Iran continues to suffer under sanctions. Major projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar will help boost the region’s refined products exports.
5. Africa: Following the start of production in Ghana, we see a continuation of strong investor interest in West Africa’s/Gulf of Guinea’s oil potential, while we will see further gas potential for the eastern coastal countries.
Prepared by:
Chriss Bakunda ,CEO-Baklon's Inc.
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