Business Monitor International's Cameroon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Cameroon's oil and gas industry.
The new Cameroon Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.97% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.71% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 3.75mn b/d in 2009. It should average 3.81mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.26mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged 9.67mn b/d. From an estimated 10.23mn b/d in 2010, it is set to rise to 11.93mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.87mn b/d. This total had risen to 5.92mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.67mn b/d by 2014. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 122.9bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 165.6bcm forecast for 2014. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 305.2bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 97bcm to 140bcm in 2014. Cameroon makes no significant current contribution to regional gas supply or demand.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous years level. Cameroons real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 2.8% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 4.7% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 34,000b/d in 2010 to 42,000b/d in 2014. State oil company Socit Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH) operates in partnership with a small group of international oil companies (IOCs). It is also responsible for selling the governments share of oil output and holds a 20% stake in projects operated by Total, Pecten and Perenco. Thanks to IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output of around 73,000b/d in 2010 is expected to peak at 85,000b/d in 2014/15. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly over the longer term, potentially providing the basis for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by around 2016.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Cameroons oil and gas liquids production of 7.4%, with volumes peaking at an estimated 85,000b/d in 2014/15 before slipping to 78,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 55.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 53,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise to 5.0bcm by the end of the period. With demand growing by a forecast 70%, there is potential for net exports of 4.6bcm by 2019. Details of BMIs 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Cameroon is near the foot of BMIs composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It places ninth, above only Equatorial Guinea and Sudan. The country also holds ninth place in the updated upstream Business Environment ratings, although it is just one point behind the Republic of Congo and therefore capable of medium-term upwards progress. The countys score benefits from reasonable gas output growth prospects, a very healthy gas reserves to production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The countrys risk environment is shaky, but this is hardly uncommon in the African region. Cameroon is at the bottom of the league table in BMIs updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with few high scores and immediate progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked 11th behind even the Congo, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, nominal GDP and the absence of competition in the downstream segment.
0 comments:
Post a Comment