Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Equatorial Guinea's oil and gas industry.
This new Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for just 0.03% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 3.75% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn b/d in 2001 rose to 3.75mn b/d in 2009. It should average 3.81mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.26mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged 9.67mn b/d. From a forecast 10.23mn b/d in 2010, it is set to rise to 11.93mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.87mn b/d. This total had risen to 5.92mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.67mn b/d by 2014. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 122.9bcm, with demand of 165.6bcm forecast for 2014. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 305.2bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 97bcm to 140bcm in 2014. Equatorial Guinea will consume an estimated 1.32% of the regions gas in 2010, with its market share set to be 1.19% by 2014. It will contribute 2.92% to estimated 2010 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 2.20% of supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
Source: Business Wire
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